Really "letting it rip" on Covid Island

This week on Twitter I suggested we should run an experiment to see what it might look like if we didn’t regard Covid in the same way that Chicken Little views the unsteadiness of the firmament.

To do this we need pick somewhere to be a type of lepers’ colony.

 Tasmania would seem the logical choice.

On this island, let's pretend it is Tasmania, Covid would be treated like the seasonal flu.

People can get vaccinations but it is only recommended.

It is not mandatory for any occupations, even for those doing healthcare.

Residents are free to do anything they want to feel safe.

They might choose to stay away from crowded places, wear masks or perhaps seal themselves into hermetically sealed bubbles.

If none of this is reassurance enough they can leave the island and find a much larger hermetically sealed bubble – such as Western Australia.

Equally, those who don’t want to live with lockdowns, lockouts, social distancing rules or restrictions, testing, quarantine, isolation, QR codes, “deep cleaning”, hand sanitisers, mandatory vaccinations and masks can relocated to “Covid Care-Free Island” without impediment.

No doubt this intrepid little colony would soon find itself called “Covid Island” by both friends and detractors. Perhaps it might get a catchy theme tune.

How would this turn out? 

Would everyone on Covid Isle be dead in a week or a few months?

Most likely not because Covid has an extremely high survivability rate.

In New York they calculated that over 98% of cases were non-fatal.

It would also depend on the demography of the island's population because Covid is mainly a mortal risk to those over 70 or with other serious conditions.

Most probably there would be more Covid cases and so sadly more deaths than on most of the mainland states.

However, this is not that clear cut.

For example, how would “let-it-rip” Covid Isle match up with “lock-it-down” Victoria?

Despite being by far the most locked down state and employing draconian enforcement of restrictions, Victoria accounts for more than 70% of Covid-linked deaths in Australia.

So the number of deaths doesn't necessarily reflect the severity or consistency of measures taken.

Other factors matter. such as government competence or the readiness and performance of the health sector.

How would other measures of public health and wellbeing compare? Sometimes it is hard to remember there are other things to be concerned about.

We know that harsh Covid measures have been devastating in terms of not diagnosing or treating other diseases and for mental health outcomes.

For young people the costs have been high in terms of education as well as opportunities and irreplaceable memories lost.

Lockdowns and restrictions have also, obviously, been catastrophic for public finances and businesses.

Also border closures have made it tough for employers looking for workers and been a big hit for the university sector that has increasingly relied on foreign fee-paying students.

So we might assume Covid Island is doing better than the mainland in all those areas.

What might be the longer term consequences of Covid Island taking its “care-free” approach while most Australian states continue drastic measures to limit Covid?

The island would most likely have more cases and perhaps deaths but on every other measure of general well-being, achievement and potential it would almost certainly streak ahead.

This type of mass social experiment has already been run a number of times.

When a people who are identical in language, culture and social mores are divided by placing one group under heavy handed top-down central government management while the other set is given comparative freedom the results are always the same.

The freer side always ends up wealthier, healthier and happier.

We have seen this with East and West Germany, North and South Korea, or Cuba and the Cubans in Florida or China and its freer offshoots of Hong Kong and Taiwan.

I expect there would be much head-shaking and even rage at running such a “reckless experiment” as Covid Island.

How can you just let things take their course and trust irresponsible people to make their own decisions without their superiors in officialdom making them do the “right thing”?

Even though people will vote with their feet and Covid Island's population will boom, newcomers might find it hard to let go of the Covid anxiety they have been inculcated with.

They would in all likelihood demand changes whenever Covid cases increase (even if daily testing is not a news item) and urge that the government must “do something”.

Perhaps, in time, their voices would win so the experiment could only have a relatively short shelf-life.

Still, it might be worth a try, don’t you think?

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